The Minerva Institute examined how age correlates with voter participation intention and support for Fidesz and the Tisza Party on a combined sample of 14,500 respondents from 8 surveys.

The Minerva Institute has examined participation intention and party choice in eight measurements since May last year. Combining this data (N=14,572), we examined participation and choice between the two major parties as a function of exact age. Here we report smoothed mean values, but individual measurements did not differ, only noisier due to less data.

Participation probability: The average of responses given to questions about participation intention, where the "will definitely participate" category has value 1, others 0. We formed the set of committed voters indicating the given age and those differing by +/- 2 years of age. (So the value for age 37 is formed on the set of 35, 36, 37, 38, 39 year-old respondents).

Fidesz/Tisza ratio: We formed the set of committed voters indicating the given age and those differing by +/- 2 years of age. (So the value for age 37 is formed on the set of 35, 36, 37, 38, 39 year-old respondents).

On this set, we calculated the F/T ratio by assigning value 1 to Fidesz voters and value 0 to Tisza voters, then dividing by the number of elements in the set.

(The F/T ratio is a number between 1 and 0, it is 1 if all members of the set vote for Fidesz, 0 if all vote for Tisza. If a 20-element set contains 8 Fidesz and 12 Tisza voters then the F/T ratio value is 8/20=0.4.)

We calculate this ratio for every age. At the ends of the age scale, the applied method excludes 2-2 values, so the first value of the data series is age 20, the last value is 90+.

Since there are fewer respondents at the two ends of the age distribution, the curve error is somewhat higher.

The data were not weighted by other demographic variables.