Budapest, April 10, 2026. – According to the Minerva Institute's April survey, record turnout, a Tisza victory, and a more likely two-party parliament are expected, with a two-thirds Tisza victory having low probability.

According to the Minerva Institute's estimate, domestic turnout will be higher than ever at 76%, meaning 5.8 million voters will go to the polls. Among them, according to our expectations, 50.8% will vote for Tisza on the party list, 41.1% for Fidesz, the entry of Membership of Homeland is at least questionable, while there is no chance for the Democratic Coalition and MKKP to enter.

In the survey's full sample, the proportion of those planning to participate was 94.8%, with the Tisza Party leading Fidesz by nearly 20 percentage points and Membership of Homeland Mozgalom at 4.2%. However, the Institute proceeded from the assumption that in telephone surveys, politically more active voters planning certain participation are more highly represented, while less engaged groups are likely underrepresented. However, they may vote very differently from certain voters. This is supported by the fact that among those calling themselves certain voters - 88 percent of the sample - Tisza leads by 24 percentage points, while in the merely 7 percent group indicating probable participation, Fidesz is better off by 46 percentage points. The Minerva Institute identified this phenomenon, stably observed for several months - a twofold Tisza advantage among certain voters, a threefold Fidesz advantage among probable voters - as sample bias and corrected it through weighting and probabilistic modeling, arriving at the estimate of a 9.7 percentage point Tisza lead.

Using the corrected data, the Minerva Institute estimates the following result:

According to VOKSADAT's seat calculator, this results in the following parliamentary arc:

An important new development that may explain the Tisza strengthening trend shown in recent weeks is that there is a shift visible in the age dependency of Fidesz-Tisza party choice compared to previous Minerva surveys. In the current survey, for the older generation it has started to change in favor of Tisza - and above age 55 this change exceeds the natural volatility of the fresh data series.

There is less certain information available about politically less active voters, so their expected behavior can only be estimated more uncertainly. As a result, the difference between the two major parties may be smaller or larger than stated, but according to the applied model, a Fidesz majority and a Tisza two-thirds victory have low probability. The other important question of the final days is whether Membership of Homeland Mozgalom, which until now has been hovering around the entry threshold and is now estimated at 4.2%, might even cross the threshold, although based on the last measurement there is also little chance of this.

The April survey also examined how much the final period of the campaign drew voters in. Regardless of party choice, 4/5 of respondents discussed politics in their families, and approximately 35% of them (51% of Tisza voters, 29% of Fidesz voters, but also close to a quarter of other party voters) participated in a campaign event by one of the party leaders. These values also show that those in the sample are more deeply engaged in day-to-day politics than usual.