A Christmas snapshot of public opinion: half of certain party voters would already vote for Tisza, and small parties have disappeared. Minerva Institute's latest pre-Christmas survey shows that while peace reigns under the Christmas tree, Hungarian politics is consolidating into a two-party system, and even Fidesz's messages no longer hold sway with its own base.
Two weeks before Christmas, Hungarian voters' political activity rivals the intensity of holiday preparations. Based on representative survey data, voter turnout intention remains exceptionally high: 78 percent of the voting-age population promises to vote if we had elections this Sunday, with another 10 percent considering it likely. Regarding party preferences, no significant shift is visible: among the general population, Tisza continues to hold 36 percent support, while Fidesz currently stands at 30 percent (showing a margin-of-error decline from 32 percent a month ago).
The difference is even more pronounced among certain party voters, where Tisza stands at the psychological 50 percent threshold, compared to the ruling party's 43 percent. Simultaneously, the political map has radically simplified: small party support has practically vanished, with no single formation exceeding 2 percent among the general population, and none reaching the 5 percent parliamentary threshold even among certain party voters. However, the 1 percent threshold for state funding is currently within reach of several small parties (DK, Mi Hazánk, MKKP), so this remains a realistic goal.
Although the data reflects a government change mood—42 percent of respondents would like the current prime minister's era to end, compared to 37 percent supporting continuation (versus the 40-40 tie from a month ago)—the force of habit still operates in voter psychology. To the question "Who would you bet wins the election?", the majority (38%) bets on Fidesz victory, while only 30 percent believe in Tisza success, with an extraordinarily high rate (30%) of undecided responses. The survey also highlighted two critical "fronts": among women and small-town residents, the race is completely tight, running neck and neck (around 31-32 percent) for both parties.
Examining voter base composition shows Tisza attracted more than just opposition voters. 13 percent of current Tisza voters say they voted for Fidesz in 2022—these voters clearly switched sides. A supporting point comes from examining those not currently choosing a party: 20 percent mentioned Fidesz as their choice four years ago, with others naming different parties or not meaningfully responding. This only means that among those currently undecided could be former Fidesz voters, but we cannot know how many or how they will decide next year.
In campaign noise, voters' perception of reality proves surprisingly sharp: the "Tisza victory means tax increases" message is considered outright false by 48 percent of voters, while only just over a third, 18 percent, thinks it true. Telling is the data that even within the Fidesz camp skepticism runs deep: 40 percent of ruling party voters consider this claim true, while others are uncertain or reject its credibility.
Examining Christmas traditions, however, political division fades into the background. Hungary's Christmas traditions are stable and politically neutral: 77 percent of the population plan to give gifts, two-thirds light candles on the advent wreath, and every other citizen plans to donate during the holidays. Financial hardship prevents only 3 percent of respondents from giving gifts. Political preferences show sharp differences in only one area: religious practice. While more than half of Fidesz voters (53%) plan to attend Christmas church services, this rate is only 25% among Tisza sympathizers, clearly showing the two camps' differing cultural-sociological and demographic backgrounds.
Minerva Institute conducts its telephone public opinion polls using an automated AI voice assistant—the vast majority of respondents experienced this solution as neutral, unusual, or explicitly positive, with only about one-fifth reporting negative experiences. The survey conducted December 8-12 was conducted as an independent research institute—without a client, pursuing its own professional goals. The survey collected 2,453 fully completed questionnaires, from which a representative 1,000-person sample was randomly selected, proportional to age groups.
Minerva Institute's primary goal is to renew survey methodology through automated data collection. Minerva Institute does not aspire to become another public opinion polling organization, so it does not publish comprehensive analyses; however, it makes the survey database available to anyone on its website.
The survey can be analyzed further:
▶ Questions
▶ Response database (XLSX)
▶ Analysis results (XLSX)
▶ Research methodology